Justice Juice Mafia Thread I (NIGHT 3)

[Kilgamayan]

Oh huh, I hadn't even thought of SB as not the intended NK. I suppose I was too irritated by seemingly being deemed unworthy of the honor of the N1 NK yet again to think through the other possibilities that have been mentioned.

I still think Validon is quite likely to be scum based on everything I've presented against him throughout the entire game, but if we wait a while and don't see a Chicago Vote from SB, then Shadowy and PX will get thrown right back near the top of the suspicion list.

[Cheez8]

SB can vote. He's already listed with the "Not Voting" group.

[Polaris]

I should've seen that earlier >_> I even remember thinking "oh 11 votes in play that means SB is still voting" and then I forgot

[Cheez8]

I'm not sure if the evilness of the kill really effects whether or not he gets to vote, but assuming the scum team killed him still makes the most sense to me.

[Kilgamayan]

I'M TIRED OKAY ;_;

Well then.

OFFICIAL PRE-BED UNSUBSTANTIATED OPINION POWER RANKINGS

Probably Scum Tier

Validon

Possibly Scum Tier

Dormio
Cheez

??? Tier

NNR
Shadowy
PX

Probably Town Tier

Polaris
Sky Paladin

If You Lynch Him I Will Cry Tier

DNA

As much as I think Shadowy and PX would be dumb to kill SB, (1) they've both been pretty scummy outside of that, and (2) with all due respect to everyone else, there weren't many better options if they considered the possible existence of a doc because I think they'd assume said doc would be all over me. durr hurr player meta but I don't think Shadowy has it in her to knowingly kill Polaris N1, and if not me or him, then who? A sketchy Dormio? A super-sketchy whichever-of-Shadowy-and-PX-isn't-scum-if-they-aren't-scumbuddies? Any of the handful of unpredictable newbies? SB was sketchy too but I think he's good enough to talk himself out of a mislynch and I think they'd know that too.

I think I may have talked myself into reopening the Shadowy/PX door. I need to dwell on this for a bit. Sleep calls right now, though.

[Shadoweh]

That reminds me. Polaris, do you even have a vote or are you pretty much a Tree Stump now?

[Polaris]

i hope i have a vote, my role pm says only as long as both of us are alive will we have to link our votes ;_; so presumably now that serela's dead i'll have control

wait for the next votecount to see, i guess

[Kilgamayan]

Goddamn, night kill analysis and player meta. I must be exhauted.

PEOPLE WHO ARE UNSURE ABOUT VALIDON OR DO NOT THINK HE IS LIKELY TO BE SCUM: Please explain to me how the things I quoted in #478 are more indicative of a townie scumhunting and concluding Serela than scum trying to cast a vote for an easy target.

Night!

[Kilgamayan]

(ps I am not saying that because SB died it had to be Shadowy and/or PX that killed him. I'm saying that originally I thought they were both extremely unlikely to kill him, but now realize the logic I used to get to that point is flawed, and thus his death is not nearly as indicative of their towniness as I originally thought. OKAY REALLY LEAVING NOW)

[BT]

Votecount 2.2

Validon98 (2): Kilgamayan, Polaris
Shadoweh (1): Sky_Paladin

Not Voting (8 ): Darkninjaabc, SB, NekoNekoRex, Cheez8, Validon98, Dormio, PX,  Shadoweh

It's 6 to lynch and 71.5 hours remaining.
(Countdown)

I've had to make this clarification already, so: evil does mean non-town.

[Cheez8]

Oh, alright. Good to know.

Kilga makes a pretty good point for Validon but I don't want this day to end TOO super-fast. I'll put off voting for him until the morning when I can confirm that I want to vote for him by thinking straight.

If I forget I said this and start yabbering about someone else just yell at me or something and everything should be all better.

[Shadoweh]

Okay, falling asleep coma again. Currently fine with Validon case but requires more review. Also need review into looking into dead person. I don't believe in Bus Drivers. :V Kilga's argument is hilarious considering he knows damn well who I would kill unless he were scum with me.

[DNAbc]

This game is so maddeningly confusing, we pretty much had the consent that scummy people are sb, shadow, serela and validon.
But both players in this list who are horrendously scummy flips town. Worst I actually bought the scumread on these people. You know what? I am feeling less and less confident on scum!cheez8. Retracting stances should be performed by scum only. But yet somehow this guy kept pushing with weak cases and retracted them on a moment's notice. But considering the fact that he's new to this site and possibly not too experienced with mafia maybe he's just a paranoid town? Can we just avoid the grey area where we give scum more advantage? Reading him as null atm.

To dead sb: I am not coasting on town cred, my internet connection is only available either i borrow a computer or after 8pm when I get off from school. My connection times are verification for that. The essay thing is also real. I can tell you very well it is a 2000 word essay on the human circulatory system. You do not know how much pain I went through detailing the structure of the heart and how blood flows through it. My brain was melting at that time and I am piss tired to contribute. Kilga ranted what I thought of and those which I cannot put to words perfectly I just felt, ''well, there's a scum dead, time to sleep.''

But now I am not certain. Perhaps kilga really is scum.
Let's think back to when cheez defended me. His logic was plain weird which I have pointed out. But then, shortly after it was followed up by an absurdly similar statement rephrasing the idea which I have already stated. His overly friendly manner of addressing me is also rather unsettling. While sure, I was kind of helped by him, I just can't stop thinking now, ''I wouldn't have been lynched then if that argument is really all they've got''. So why did kilga put so much dedication into defending me? An experienced scum who has predicted my fail logic being detrimental to town as everyone kept insisting? Then it clicks together. He plays town hard defending me to confuse town. But not now, I caught you.

Then there's kilga's relatively inactive behavior at the start of the game which if I recall correctly was that ''well smalltalk in d1 start is pointless''. But then d1 smalltalk is the only thing you have in d1 anyway, and then there's your vote. Even if d1 start talk really is as pointless as he has claimed, why would he be not bother to make any contribution, at all? Answer, he has a scum QT to attend to. So comparably, this town smalltalk really is irrelevant to him. For  they would make much more if they contemplate on how and when to jump on someone. Without any transition nor reasoning sans, ''well i felt that was boring so i didn't participate'', then going full throttle in super townie mode is enough to ring all the alarms in me.

##Vote Kilgamayan

DNA is a nice nick, scum. I almost worshipped you too.

[DNAbc]

PEOPLE WHO ARE UNSURE ABOUT VALIDON OR DO NOT THINK HE IS LIKELY TO BE SCUM: Please explain to me how the things I quoted in #478 are more indicative of a townie scumhunting and concluding Serela than scum trying to cast a vote for an easy target.

Alright, that's a statement which doesnt go anywhere. Kilga already quoted the worst part of validon's fail accompanied with a bias which is a dead end question with only the answer, ''well validon is scummy.''

(ps I am not saying that because SB died it had to be Shadowy and/or PX that killed him. I'm saying that originally I thought they were both extremely unlikely to kill him, but now realize the logic I used to get to that point is flawed, and thus his death is not nearly as indicative of their towniness as I originally thought. OKAY REALLY LEAVING NOW)

I also cannot imagine someone like kilga contradicting his case provided with how apparantly experienced he is with mafia.

------
I beileve kilga is one among the scum. (I don't want to announce another prediction on scumteam for that it might be misdirecting, not that I have no idea though) They basically saw how likely kilga should be nightkilled by scum if he's town for he's being super helpful to town. So what do they do? They murder another scummy player to discredit their own member's major scumcalls and to instill paranoia in town. Kilga's recent super hyped mood is making my spine shiver also. And there's that he directly addressed how he totally should be shot.

Will be leaving library in 10mins. Seeya in 4 hours.

[DNAbc]

Right I believe kilga never even addressed how he kicked from relatively inactive to full throttle most contributive town ever.

After rereading the thread.

I dont know its for the better or worse but anyway.

Seeya all in 4 hours/

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Huh. The day started. Anyway.

##Vote Sky Paladin

Why, you may ask?
Well, first of all, there's how he handled the Serela wagon yesterday.
I don't like how wishy-washy he was about the entire ordeal as if he didn't want to stain his hands or something.
Combine that with the apology in his latest post today and to me it just feels like he really wanted to lynch Serela while not getting his hands dirty.
I mean just look at this post where he tries to push Serela as the only possible lynch option for the day while openly stating his disinterest in the wagon.
Like, I think it's too much of an attempt to remain clean or something.

Of course, that's not the only thing that I think is scummy.
There's this thing which I think was mentioned D1.
Like, I'm seeing this as an attempt to extend the RVS and just create useless noise which doesn't benefit town.
If I tried to explain myself a bit better, I guess this fits into my impression that Sky Palladium is a completely by-the-books kind of guy and this seems like the kind of textbook strategy he would try to employ as scum.

This post, as well, parses as little more than fluff to me.
Like, an attempt to look like he's contributing?

OTHER PEOPLE OF INTEREST THAT I'LL MAKE A POST ABOUT SOON. PROBABLY.

• Validon98
• Cheez8

[Kilgamayan]

Shadowy I know you would want to kill me. But let's pretend for a moment there's a doc in this game, since that's not an uncommon thing. Who do you think they would have protected last night? Seriously, look at the player list, and consider how sketchy you and SB (and PX too I guess) looked at the end of the day. With that answer in mind, would you really still have gone after me?

Dormio, I think you're making too much of Sky Paladin's Serela vote. Most of the newbies in this game have been hyper-paranoid about wagons and consolidation and whatnot, and once Sky Paladin saw he had more time than he thought he had he went back to voting someone he thought was scum. I don't think too harshly of him for it.

DNA: As near as I can tell, you think I'm scum not being here ED1, trying to get people to agree with my scumreads, and trying to dissuade people from lynching my town reads. Well okay then.  :wat: To at least answer your question about my ED1 activity, the game started when I was asleep, and then I woke up late and went to work in a rush, completely forgetting the game even existed until after I got there. For the other two things, well, I want scum and not town lynched, so...they seem like the logical courses of action?

[DNAbc]

...i am more dubious of both you and shadoweh seem to fit together so perfectly like two exact polar opposite magnets.

Kilga. You are a very experienced player. You know that. Out of shadowehs individual short questions there is absolutely no need to address separately. If you are genuinely trying to convict him just lump all your doubts, crumbs and whatever and do it like how you did with serela and me. Nagging serela at d1 end and telling her to counterpush shadow instead of defending himself or fullclaim already sticks out like a sore thumb in your otherwise supertown play.

Your usr of questions as a supposedly experienced townie is also boggling. Questions depending on the wording can be directed to always yield a desired answer. Especially in mafia where you can quote a small part of someones post and stereotype their entire playstyle as scummy. Why have you used questions so much then instead od interpreting and crumbing it all the way back?

Your accusations on shadoweh lacks material and comes down to us(at least me) as just bussing. You keep telling us to read him ourselves hes posting so little hes coasting. But i simply just dont agree thats a scumtell now that i thijk about it. Shadows practically a troll last game and even in when hes modding which you should be even more familiar with rhan me. therew no material that knocks the nail in the coffin for scumshadow. Which is weird from you considering how well you can analyze.
(Yes stereotyping from past games isnt practically reliable but it still information)

Please address that. Kilga. And if you can do pl

[DNAbc]

And then theres my wild guess.

Consider kilga's content and his presence. I personally expect scum to be out for his blood.
He himself addressed that sooner than anyone would. Which is rather weird. If scum really is so retarded to not target him why would he want to remind them? And then theres the crazy vig suspicion theory which says, "well the doc saved someone and town shot the scummy people." But then again. If this is really an unconditional vig usalabe on d1asap it must be a Xshot ability or balanced by either killblocking roles or superscums. This actually makes more sense if you want to insist kilga is town. But setup is claimed by mod to be more vanilla aligned. That makes absurdly op scum not a thing of concern if bt is to be trusted. And

[Kilgamayan]

It's cold and I have very little time. In order:

- Not answering questions directed at you is rude and unhelpful, so of course I'm going to do this.
- Serela had already fullclaimed and more or less given up on defending himself. In Mafia, the best defense is a good offense, particularly when you're under pressure. If telling people not to vote for you isn't going anywhere, show them why they should vote for someone else instead of you.
- I ask questions because I want to know reasons and motivations. Being right doesn't automatically make you town, and being wrong doesn't automatically make you scum. It's all about the "why". People that are wrong but had good reasons are likely to just be mistaken townies. People that are right for shit reasons (or wrong for shit reasons) are likely to be scum unable to form proper cases.
- Your assessment of my Shadowy case is factually incorrect. Please reread what I've actually brought to bear against her.

Cut by setup speculation that I don't have time to get into, but I don't think I really need to hurry to do that given what it is.

[Cheez8]

Right, I forgot that the circumstances of this morning will not actually allow me to think straight for a while.

Now I'm going to put of voting for Validon until the next time I can think straight. Same for successfully reading through those posts because there's no way I'll grasp Darkie's logic without a clear head and I'd also want to make sure that other people's summaries of his logic aren't misrepresentations before I buy them.

[Kilgamayan]

Oh hey got a few more minutes.

Small clarification on the "factually incorrect" Shadowy case assessment thing: I did accuse her of floating along with barely a presence. I made this accusation exactly once, and it is the only aspect of my case that I didn't press. The useless CF7 vote and Making Stuff Up About SB were far worse an I've focused on them a lot more.

For the latest DNA post, I'm sure scum didn't forget I was playing when they chose their NK, and the crazy vig theory has been debunked.

[BT]

Votecount 2.3

Validon98 (2): Kilgamayan, Polaris
Shadoweh (1): Sky_Paladin
Kilgamayan (1): Darkninjaabc
Sky_Paladin (1): Dormio

Not Voting (6): SB, NekoNekoRex, Cheez8, Validon98, PX,  Shadoweh

It's 6 to lynch and 61 hours remaining.
(Countdown)

[Sky_Paladin]

I'm interested in why SB was killed.  On the surface, it's strategically a poor scum choice.  They should usually go for somebody who either is suspected to have a role, or is generally accepted as town by a majority of players, is perceived as a threat for some reason (usually by being accurate with scum reads), or killing off the player benefits the scum in some way (e.g. by potentially clearing a scum who was voting to kill the victim, shock!).  Otherwise, it's just a random killing.  I want to believe that SB wasn't randomly picked.  That's my assumption before going into this analysis. 

So let's have a look at the interactions with SB.  First of all, we've got mod confirmation that SB was killed by scum; so we can assume a couple of things from this which I'll get to when they're relevant. 

page 2:  SB votes Shadoweh. 
page 3:  SB votes for DNA. 
page 3:  PX votes for SB. 
page 3:  SB says:

100% accurate RVS Scumteam: Dark, Serela, Validon

Now watch me die night 1. I'd be in stitches if I did.

page 4:  SB votes for Validon. 
page 7:  PX revotes for SB. 
page 8:  After a couple of pages back and forth with DNA, SB votes for DNA. 
page 8:  Sky_Paladin votes for SB. 
page 10:  SB argues with PX about Dark. 
page 16:  PX votes for SB (but its after hammer). 
page 17:  SB goes pop :/

So, why was SB killed?
Option 1 - SB may have had some useful role. 
Impossible - it was night 1 and SB had made no claim. 

Option 2 - was SB generally accepted as town?
Not really, in fact, there were many who considered him to be potential scum rather than null reads. 

Option 3 - Appears to have good reads on who the scum are. 
SB implicated - DNA, Validon, Serela.  Serela is dead so let's rule him out. 

Option 4 - Will implicate another towny in some way
Not really relevant - we know scum killed SB, not vig, so any of the people who wanted him flipped - myself, Kilga, possibly PX - aren't responsible for killing him.  In short, if any of us were scum, we would almost certainly have gone for different targets.  Personally, I would have killed DNA as he's stated he has a role and is generally accepted to be town.  There's also been no interaction between Dark and myself to link back to me. 

So far from this read the strongest picks are DNA and Validon.  SB was actually voting for Validon when he died.  Validon seems like a good case. 

I'm going to keep my vote on Shadoweh though while I sleep on it.  I'm interested to see what others have to say. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Also this:

DNA

Consider kilga's content and his presence. I personally expect scum to be out for his blood.

Isn't that what you're doing right now?

[Sky_Paladin]

Right, Dormio. 

I don't like how wishy-washy he was about the entire ordeal as if he didn't want to stain his hands or something.

Pretty much this.  I thought Serela was town, and stated so pretty much every post.  By the last part of the day it was clear we were either going to no lynch or Serela lynch.  I had alternatively pushed Shadoweh and SB.  I got some ground with Shadoweh but I had to leave for work before phase end.  So I switched my vote again.  At this point, on day 1, I would have preferred a no lynch.  However everybody is always telling me that apparently that's the worst thing and even if we cleared Serela for day 1, he'd probably be up for it again in day 2 just because of how shady they were being.  I personally needed Serela to stop posting because it was making it much harder to physically read the thread.  I was almost certain they were town but in the last part of the day I started to be less confident.  Then seeing him vote for himself I was like 'well I guess we should put you out of your misery'. 

Other than that I think your analysis is not bad, just misinformed.  I live in Japan so I'm on a drastically different time-zone, I've no experience with RVS as well.  I'm used to starting the game with night phase.  I don't like lynching based on random speculation.  I have around thirty mafia games under my belt but they've all been ones where we could communicate privately - this open playing field is very challenging and refreshing. 

And lastly, because I'm married, I'm often called away from the computer for whatever reason and I lose my train of thought and make some mistakes when I come back :/

You'll note that my behaviour with not-lynching Serela is the same as not wanting to lynch day 1 in the previous game. 

I'm not scum, I'm just not playing so great.  So good on you for making an analysis, but it'd be better invested in other players. 

[Sky_Paladin]

Last point. I meant to say in my first analysis, only I forgot.

It's possible SB was killed to implicate DNA and Validon.

[Cheez8]

Option 3 - Appears to have good reads on who the scum are. 
SB implicated - DNA, Validon, Serela.  Serela is dead so let's rule him out. 

Option 4 - Will implicate another towny in some way
Not really relevant - we know scum killed SB, not vig, so any of the people who wanted him flipped - myself, Kilga, possibly PX - aren't responsible for killing him.  In short, if any of us were scum, we would almost certainly have gone for different targets.  Personally, I would have killed DNA as he's stated he has a role and is generally accepted to be town.  There's also been no interaction between Dark and myself to link back to me. 

Popping in to say I considered the "now watch me die night one" post as part of the motivation behind killing SB but I feel like that was factored into the motivation as a red herring for the town to focus on. Even though I obviously can't prove it, it's still a possibility.

Of course, Darkie's right when he says I'm being paranoid since I'm really stuck a little too firmly in the mindset of "anybody who is scum is either a master at mind games or taking advice from a teammate who's a master at mind games, do not fully trust anybody ever" and I really ought to just settle down and decide on at least SOME things to take at face value.

Also, I'd imagine DNA was one of the most obvious choices (if not the most obvious) for a doctor to visit last night, which the scum team probably thought of.

[DNAbc]

Paladin. Have you ever considered the possibility that since my towness is clear and validon being the next up big suspect plays a part in scum decision?

I have also had a fleeting vague idea of what you typed intially. You basically helped me to put that into words. And iam bad ad at wording stuff. So thanks.

Scum had no idea but would likely be expecting the doctor or jailkeep. Those are just the protective roles.

Considering i am a claimed PR with a "decent" power and kilga is the currently most townest player (assuming he is). Isnt that likely we are going to b eunder protection. And why would they want to risk losing an easy kill while masking their identity d1?

Simple. They murder someone else and let town mull over their reads to misdirect.
This smart-scum-who-think-three-steps-in is also what sent me on a complete reread of seemingly super town players. If thr scumteam has some really good player(ie kilga dormio px). Just any one of them in the scumteam leading the entire drama unfold as such would have been easy.

This is not overly speculative either. Ibam just giving those who apparantly live on another level a different view.

That said sky are you just an irritated scum who doesnt like how nobody town xonnected the dots to sb kill and decided to throw it out instead? That would also be a likely scenario to say.

Town. Try rereading the entire slew of this game an especially the seemingly supertown players. Their behavior do branch off at weird times and have a stream of oddly deep and fast insights on meta and nk and whatnot which they take the trouble to justify every time so as to not cause doubt. Sky paladins wall rigjt there is the epitome of this phenomena

[DNAbc]

The fuck i got double cut by two diferent people.

Nvm dropping this.