Town Mafia (Game Over)

[ActionDan]

middle of page 4.

Validon is prob-town.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

So we can totally expect a post detailing why you think what you've posted in thread once you're done with your read, right Dan?
Because random reads are pretty worthless in my opinion.

[ActionDan]

you can maybe expect more.  but not much more than maybe a few lines.  that said I'm getting more concrete reads. 

I mean I go to bed at 2am and this reading has deprived me of time playing games with my sex interest.  So I cry every time I read a wall.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Sex is, like, totally overrated anyway.

[ActionDan]

done!

town:

Conq, VM.

prob-town:

Shadoweh, Validon

in-betweens (roughly in order from town to scum):

SB
Dormio
BT
Affinity

People who post badly and that I dislike and border on scummy:

Serela.

scummy:

Raitaki
BBM.

I think Raitaki's Shadoweh vote was plain bad.  Also seems to have more reason to vote Raikaria over Shadoweh frankly.

I think BBM's responses to VM were overly defensive and on top of that flawed.  All he had to say was something along the lines of "ya I just posted my confusion and oops wasn't thinking about being misunderstood sorry everyone" and it would have been fine.  Trying to debate the issue is instinctively a scum response.  I don't feel like going into all of the argument itself but the counterargument from BBM of "but there is no towncred to be had because it is known that a equivalent mafia PM (a town role PM) with partners will be equally confusing" is bad because if people take the post at face value then they will only think that BBM was confused because he got an equivalent town PM (a mafia role PM).  BBM seized this idea and held it for dear life. 

Also like Conq and BT and maybe others I found BBM laying into Raikaria less than sincere.

Vote: BBM

also willing to vote Raitaki equally as much.

[ActionDan]

Sex is, like, totally overrated anyway.

Sex is glorious.  unless you are asexual.  Then maybe not so much.

[BigBangMeteor]

How is debating an instinctively scummy response? That premise is extremely flawed.

And VM's argument was that I was too experienced a player to just derp and post something that could be misunderstood, so saying "sorry, I dun goofed" wouldn't have responded to his vote. I didn't consider it overly defensive, and in fact, VM seems to think I handwaved most of his argument away, which doesn't really go well together with me being overly defensive.

And I don't understand why people would think that I must have gotten a mafia role PM if they take it at face value.

Also, you have a townread on one of the day's largest wagons (Validon). If so, why aren't you defending him more and actually stating the reasons for your townread? As it is it does nobody any good.

[SB]

*faceplam* I was taking about RAITAKI, not RAIKARIA. I know Raikaria subbed out. And you say I'm not ready. >_>;

So wait, if your BBM vote is the same as it has been, why vote me then? I know my list was bad, but it sounds more like you want to vote BBM yet can't. Um... explanation?

I retracted the statement later in the post when I realized there had been 2 rais.

I meant read, not vote.

Back to reading.

[Validon98]

I'm not going to be on for quite a while longer. I will be able to get back before the deadline, but just barely.
For now, though, I know I haven't focused a lot on other posts related to BBM. The other big thing I've seen from him is the VM/BBM argument which has gone completely over my head because it has crossed meta territory and that's out there for me. There's stuff about towncred and Cascade Availability and all kinds of stuff I've never heard of so I basically just ignored that argument. After a quick glance VM is indeed probably being tryhard, I get why everyone is saying that. I don't think it's scum-motivated, though.

BBM does bring up a valid point on Serela and Dan. I have no idea what the hell with Serela either. I have looked at some of his posts but I have ignored them because I didn't see much in them. Dan should expand more on his reasoning behind reading certain people the way he did.

I am still voting BBM though because after two games I know he can pull a very convincing job of being town and I cannot trust him.

@Serious Bananas: Okay, thanks for clearing that up. Those kinds of typos can make a big difference. And I realized you said something about the two Rais thing and I thought I responded but I guess I didn't. Also, that big post I quoted: The way you wrote it is kind of a headache to read because it apparently goes in chronological order, so you waffle like mad there. I'm not going to hold it against you now, but seriously, that combined with your typo almost made me want to vote you.

So yeah, I'm be gone for several hours again but I'll make it back before the deadline.

[SB]

Vhaltz's #100 has the "oh, it was just a reaction test" when he started to recieve flak for it which I really don't like. He also seems to focus way too much on whether or not BBM's a good player (bbm sux lololol) and I don't think he's calling himself a bad player like you seem to be implying he is, just not as strong as you seem to be making him out to be. Some people just don't like going "oh yeah I'm the best". Also the whole "BBM and BT always appear pro-town" thing is stoopid (and in BBM's case it's a lie, he's been scummy before) and basically I'm taking your interpretation of how you read them as you should grasp more when making cases on them, since that's what it reads like to me. Ignoring the "last resort" point on him because I haven't read that game. Pretty much you say "BBM reads mostly town for me, that's why I 'm going to vote for him."

Dan's #112 sucks. Really, it's just an empty unvote and a townread out of nowhere. Dan, who is scum? Would advocate vig on this slot currently.

I can agree with Conq's case on BBM in #117, pretty sure I picked up on BBM twisting people's words earlier on at some point. Agree with his Dormio case too.

#123 by Validon feels like excuses everywhere (although they could be real so I'll lay off this a little) but he talks about not sheeping then pretty much uses Conq's case on BBM to vote him, and pretty much says "I always found him to be suspect, why did I unvote?"

up to #137, getting some food then I'll be back

@Validon, that's just kind of my posting style I guess. Generally I skimread then do an in depth one when I actually start to post, and it comes out in kind of a cluttered way especially since if I'm playing like this and posting in chunks rather than a single solid post (that and the fact most of my posts have been when I'm already kind of tired hasn't helped.)

someone help me I'm turning into Manix

[Vhaltz]

Uh

I get the feeling Serela is town this game.  based only on style of posts.

People who post badly and that I dislike and border on scummy:

Serela.

What happened here Dan. Did you forget the reads you gave out earlier.
Mostly because Serela hasn't even posted after his #107 and you posted that townread due to posting style in your #112, which means that there is no new content on him to make you change your mind.

If you hadn't read the thread earlier and changed your mind over a reread perhaps you should have justified the read switch with reasoning of some sort other than "posts badly".
fakeedit: I actually realize Serela is scum as hell a few lines later in this post so I'm mire willing to understand this now. Plus it doesn't make any sense for me to ask him why he changed his read when I've pretty much given a whole case on him that he can use to justify it.


Bleeeeeeeegh. I really don't like how these wagons are progressing right now coupled with how some people have been behaving during mid-D1. BT and Serela just stopped posting about 20 frickin hours ago letting everybody else reach the wagons that would later turn into consolidation lynches without much involvement, and it's not like they haven't been around to read/post. I don't like Dan's only contentpost and his BBM vote despite thinking BBM has had the highest chances of flipping scum until now.
Overall this reads like a dual town wagons day because if we had hit scum in either of the two big wagons there would be scum effort in trying to divert the wagon on scum towards another townie, and I don't remember many hipster votes other than Dormio's and BBM's, and I could see BBM's being trying to scumhunt before resorting to Not Me Over Me.

This is going to look weird since I'm switching from my top scumread onto my top scumread's vote, Serela. But BBM's point is actually true, he has been active lurking. I had read him town but he hasn't been scumhunting at all in hindsight. A quick ISO revels that he hasn't even moved his vote from Shadoweh since RVS while not talking about Shadoweh to justify his vote further at all, I gave him a town read and he coasted on it. Lynch this guy NOW.

Post #19 -> votes Shadoweh.

##Kill:Shadoweh

You want to be the townest, don't you?!

Votecount #114 -> Still voting Shadoweh.

Cats howling in the night.
Validon98:    Shadoweh, BT (2)
Shadoweh:    Serela, Raitaki (2)
Vhaltzo:    Serious Bananas (1)
Raikaria:    BBM, Dormio (2)
BBM:    Raikaria, Vhaltzo (2)

Not Voting: Affinity, Walidon98, Action Dan (3)

There are 31.5 Hours left in the night.

Hasn't posted in 20+ hours since his last post after I threw out the idea that he was town, is active lurking by asking questions and defending BBM while not scumhunting because I can only see passing mentions on Shadoweh and not only are none on why Shadoweh is scum, but pretty much of them are fluff ("Shadoweh x Kitten4u otp", "not my fault game got interrupted mid-D1" and a justification of his first ED1 post that reads like "please forgive me Shadoweh I was trying it's not like I'm actually still voting you and supposed to think you're scum").
If he happens to be town for whatever reason then he deserves being lynched anyway because who the hell forgets their own vote as town and lurks like hell??? This is a lot more of a scumtell than the beef I had earlier on BBM. LYNCH THE SCUM.

#Unkill
Kill: Serela

If for whatever reason there's no support on the Serela wagon then consider me also willing to switch to consolidate on...
Haha, no. Lynch Serela. Now.

Cut by Bananas hey there I haven't read your post yet but do you want to lynch Serela? he's scum.

[Vhaltz]

If he happens to be town for whatever reason then he deserves being lynched anyway because who the hell forgets their own vote as town and lurks like hell???

This is supposed to be rethorical by the way, while some other players might do this for whatever reason it's not something town!Serela would do.

Also about coasting on the town reads, Dan had thrown one at him too. I had mentioned that earlier in the post when talking to Dan but I figure it's worth noting again so that anybody could see that two townreads coming Serela's way after a few posts meant he could relax and coast while one may not have been enough.

[Vhaltz]

Also lynching Serela who is much more clearly scum than BBM will aid in reading BBM so there are no downsides.

[Vhaltz]

Damn I'm starting to sound a little like GreyICE minus the swears, I'll try to chill a little :ohdear:

For those wondering why Serela over Validon considering that Validon has also stuck to his RVS vote for the most part and also sounds bad, Validon has at least attempted to justify his vote even if his content was not that great. You could reasonably expect that from somebody's 3rd game.
Serela hasn't updated his vote or reasoning at all so either he just decided he really didn't feel like playing as town (and he hasn't sounded depressed enough to do this) or he's scum active lurking/coasting on town reads. Absolutely Useless Town Serela is not something you'd expect from him, he would at least try to scumhunt even if he failed hard at it.

Given the high chances to flip scum and the uselessness if he's town for whatever reason Serela is the best lynch for today.

[Shadoweh]

And with the way that you had worded your statement, it's fairly easy to spin your words as being an accusation that Vhaltz was one of the "good boys" which I assume refers to town which you are using as the informed minority in this game.

Well, I supose I was being vaguely threatening to start off. Mostly I just wanted to make the joke. I don't think I've entertained a bad feeling of him since he started speaking though.

Bleh I still think Validon's posts are weird but I can't argue against that they might just be 'better'. I don't think I see the lynch happening today anyways and time will probably help figure out if he's getting help posting. I've still got my eye on you.

I don't know how else to say this about Serela, I don't see much content in his posts but that's not really an indicator of whether he's scum or not. >.> Vhaltz why would you go from BBM HATE and saying Dan is weird to voting with BBM and Dan. Serela is always a good lynch easy enough to read when he posts reads and I agree not being able to point to a scumspect is a good lynching reason, just that even as scum he's usually tried to make a terrible reason to lynch someone by now. Usually one of his buddies. >:<

Also even if it's 'lacking' I don't think Dan's post is bad so there's that. He clearly recognizes my goddesshood, which is always a good start. Looking at the clock there's ten hours from now to deadline so I'm gonna catch some zz's and decide what else to do in the morning. Suspects looking townie always depresses me.

[Vhaltz]

I don't know how else to say this about Serela, I don't see much content in his posts but that's not really an indicator of whether he's scum or not. >.> Vhaltz why would you go from BBM HATE and saying Dan is weird to voting with BBM and Dan. Serela is always a good lynch easy enough to read when he posts reads and I agree not being able to point to a scumspect is a good lynching reason, just that even as scum he's usually tried to make a terrible reason to lynch someone by now. Usually one of his buddies. >:<

Probably the same reason Dormio is voting for you despite the other two votes in the wagon being voteparks, conviction that this is scum. This is not "hey best thing I got rolling with it" anymore, I would really be surprised if Serela flipped town.
Also see the wagon progression comments and Serela/BT absence. I think I have done pretty good at analyzing vote movement in D1 so far in my games, I was right about it when I distrusted both wagons on you and Dormio in Chelsea and the Seven Devils Mafia. I just don't think we've hit scum with the Validon/BBM wagons or things would've run in other directions. The only thing that irked me a little about this is that after counting votes a little while ago I also noticed you were a wagon on par with Validon, it's fishy that Dormio voted along with two voteparks but it would be understandable that he'd disregard them as a reason to stay off the wagon because he really thinks you're scum, his recent post reads more like the usual Dormio.

The realization has hit me a little late but I don't see why you should withhold support on a wagon until tomorrow when the wagon is at 2 votes and the other three wagons are at 3 votes, we are hardly consolidating on two wagons at this point anymore. Serela lynch can still go through today and I'm confident enough about his scumminess that I'm even more curious to see his flip now, because this could just be waving off the wagon to get a scumbuddy with a nice role to live for at least one more day.

Town would also be better off losing Town!Serela (if he is town in which case I will go what the fuck Serela in post-game because that would be TERRIBLE townplay) than Town!BBM if he happens to be town (if he is town then it just means that he has a hard time understanding others' cases and always puts them in his own words in ways that are externally viewed as misreps, this is a theory that Mitsuki came up with last night and I could see it happening). Plus lynching Serela over him would additionally aid in reading BBM (because if Serela is scum I could see BBM's vote on him over a Not Me Over Me on Validon being a last attempt in scumhunting before entering deadline shenanigans, which could still be a bus but I doubt it would happen at this exact point) and anything that happens with him from here onward. Such as your soft defense of him with "there's no time" and "he'll be easy to read later". You say you're depressed by your suspects seeming town, which is also contradictory with not supporting this alternate wagon of SERELA IS CLEARLY SCUM with such poor reasons. Why not lynch him now when he's being scummy as hell and worse than Validon who is now looking somewhat possibly town to you? Nothing makes sense here.

So all in all I don't see any reason to not lynch Serela over BBM. Go for it, lynch Serela 2013.

Also if you read my fakeedit Dan doesn't worry me that much anymore because Serela is indeed a really scummy thing and I can see the big switch in reads happening even though he should have reasoned that. I could see town!Dan doing that even if it's scummy/weird whereas I wouldn't see Serela playing the way he is as town. I probably should have backspaced on the whole Dan thing to make things less confusing but I wanted to make sure that other people who can read him better notice him so that I'm not giving him a free pass.

[WHMZakeri]

Dust in the Wind
Validon98:    Shadoweh, BT, Serious Bananas (3)
Shadoweh:    Serela, Raitaki, Dormio (3)
BBM:     Conqueror, Validon, ActionDan (3)
BT:    Affinity (1)
Serlea:    BBM Vhaltzo (2)

Not Voting: No one :toot:

With 12 alive, it's takes 7 to decide the night kill.
There are 9.5 Hours left in the night.

[Vhaltz]

I commented on a lot of -things that seemed weird- so I'll update my priority list.

Scum:
Serela

Maybe scum:
BBM (don't really want to lynch until Serela is lynched, might move towards null/town if Serela flips scum)
Shadoweh (don't really want to lynch until Serela is lynched, might move back towards null if Serela flips town)
BT (gut on his Validon vote and No Recent Posts letting others be mostly responsible for wagon consolidation)

Null-ish from scummier to townier:
SB
Validon
Dan
Dormio

Kinda town:
Affinity
Conq (will become obvious over time so not worried about him and Mitsuki and I like reading him so)

I'm not even putting Raitaki on null because I tried to classify it from scummier to townier and Raitaki is true null while I'm waffling on some of the others in that category (Validon).

I should be around until deadline but I'll try not to spam posts much. I really really want Serela lynched though.

[ActionDan]

I'm leaving to go to a party in 3.5 hours.  I could vote Serela.

[BT]

I've overslept and then had my den turned into a construction site for a few hours. Reading will commence in a few hours. Sitting uncomfortably as we speak.

[Conqueror]

Didn't realize deadline was so close. I'll be able to make a more detailed post in a few hours, but first:

BBM, the way you worded your unvote on me makes it sound like you think my slot is scum but you aren't making any effort to convince other people of that viewpoint. Also, before that unvote, the only scumread you were seriously pushing was Raikaria, but now that I'm not a viable lynch anymore you're suddenly interested in Validon/Serela? There's nothing wrong with changing reads suddenly but it feels like you were content to lazily sit on Raikaria until you were forced to look at other lynch candidates.

Re: Appeal to Emotion. In the end, I don't care whether Raikaria was Appealing to Emotion or not, because I can see my role pm and I know what my alignment is. The way you pushed the case on my slot before I replaced in was scummy because you just plopped a label on Raikaria's play and sat there with a vote on him while lazily poking at other people.

All that said, I'd probably be willing to go for a Serela lynch over BBM given the amount of analyzable content they're going to put out over the course of the game. Serela's white-knighting of BBM also looks like busywork given that he spends all his time dissecting Vhaltz's case when I think most people here can agree Vhaltz is one of the towniest people in the game and Serela acknowledges that. Why would you waste effort tearing apart the arguments of one of your townreads at the expense of doing anything else? Bloody hipster.

##Unkill
##Kill Serela

I'll reread Serela/BBM/Validon and other people when I get back in a bit but I'm doing this for now to show my approval for this wagon.

[Vhaltz]

@Conq
If you have the time could I also get your reads on Shadoweh and Dormio so far? I can usually read them perfectly well in games I'm not playing in but I can't seem to do the same now.

[Affinity]

Going onto things other than Validon is frightful, cause without BBM/Raikaria and BBM/Vhaltz, both of which I'm inclined to ignore, this seems like any other D1 with questionable people and stuff.  ActionDan's lists, Serela's... not making posts that matter?

Reading Serela, yeah he simply hasn't made a relevant vote as people have said, but I'm getting more of a feeling of genuine bewilderment at Vhaltz being verbose back D1 than active lurking, leading to that quote tirade.  'Distancing' oneself from a lynch so early in the game strikes me as null.  Imo he's just as null as a clean slate for me; I don't agree with the 'active lurking' and 'distancing' accusations levied at him.

Out of all lynch candidates I'm best with Shadoweh; don't like how she pursued Validon from a 'coaching' perspective.  I'll justify later but bed awaits.  Let me put this vote out first.

##Unkill
##Kill: Shadoweh

[Vhaltz]

'Distancing'

Never said anything about this. It's not so much distancing as it is not scumhunting. Being confused by my batshit insaneness doesn't imply that he'd drop everything else and forget to look for scum as town, that'd be the same as assuming he's forgetting how to play or what his role PM is.

[Conqueror]

Vhaltz: Yeah sure I'll do them first.

Dormio stop posting in other threads your ISO is a nightmare to traverse.

My recent success in reading Shadoweh/Dormio has been fairly limited but I'll give it a shot. The problem with both Shadoweh and Dormio this game (Dormio more than Shadoweh) is that they both have kinda singular focuses. I want to see more from Dormio about not!Shadoweh (DORMIO GET ON THIS YOU LAZY BUM) but I guess gut tells me he's leaning town because of his tone, at least for me. It's hard to explain. He's not really a concern for me at the moment; his case on Shadoweh is decent I guess.

I'm taking a quick look at Gensokyo Holy War Mafia as reference. Dormio has posted less here than in that game when he was basically drowned by hats, but I don't think that's an alignment tell in any case. I took at quick look at Dormio last group mafia game (NHK) and I didn't get anything useful from it so whatever. If you have the time you can take a look at it if you want but I don't think it'll be very informative.

To be honest I'm having trouble reading Shadoweh because I know she likes to push hard on newbies (it's true!) as either alignment. Examples that come to mind are scum!Shadoweh pushing IHNN in Gensokyo Holy War and town!Shadoweh pushing (numerous examples here that I can't be bothered to remember).

Actually what pings me the most about Shadoweh is in her latest post when she says this:

Bleh I still think Validon's posts are weird but I can't argue against that they might just be 'better'. I don't think I see the lynch happening today anyways and time will probably help figure out if he's getting help posting. I've still got my eye on you.

...

Looking at the clock there's ten hours from now to deadline so I'm gonna catch some zz's and decide what else to do in the morning. Suspects looking townie always depresses me.

Because I don't think I've even seen town!Shadoweh give up on a lynch so easily, especially when the Validon lynch is easily viable and in fact one of the most viable lynches at the moment given the looming deadline. Her "suspects looking townie always depresses me" line sounds kinda fake too; what happened to her secondary suspicions on BBM etc that she'd just leave the lynch up in the air like that? Feels like she's waiting to see where the lynch is going to go before making a decision.

Actually, fuck it.

##Unkill
##Kill Shadoweh

Going to do more rereads and make more posts, so stay tuned.

[ActionDan]

don't want.

[Conqueror]

Move to Serela then, or are you going to hold out for BBM?

[Vhaltz]

We can just lynch Shadoweh after we lynch Serela and he flips scum ;_;
His flip would give a really nice associative read on her as well as on BBM.

[Conqueror]

Well I agree that if Serela flips scum Shadoweh is 90% next on the chopping block.

##Unkill
##Kill Serela

w/e I'll do this first just to get the Serela wagon viable while I keep looking at stuff

[Serela]

aghghgahghaghhh

I can hopefully run back home on my break in 4~5 hours to see if I need to change my vote, but I have to leave for work in a few minutes so there is literally no time for me to do more then a not-me-over-me

I spent 4 hours trying to make a post last night and it super didn't work out, so I figured I'd do it in the morning >> And then I overslept <<

...except my vote is already on Shadoweh. Between the 3 big not-me wagons, I'd least rather lynch Validon (that is, it would be the most undesirable) anyway I have to run if you guys want to lynch BBM I'll have a chance to switch to him later >_> I'll only be here a few minutes though, then.