Psycho Prophecy (Game Over Town Win)

[Kiva-la]

I want Li's input on why he thinks I'm suspecting him. If Li wasn't involved in this, I would've already told you guys.

And I have made the case, I just want other people to see it too. Try and understand my logic.

I'll give you all a hint:
"Look at the wording"

If it gets late enough I'll probably say it. Otheriwse you would have to wait an extra 16-14 hours (give or take). I wouldn't let you wait that long would I? I'm too nice for that.

Cut by Saki

If you know you'll get voted for it, why the hell do it at all?

Funny thing is, people say townies don't care how they look to other people. You should probably listen to that advice, it could help you in the long run.

[Kiva-la]

And here's another hint to make it easier:
"Look at the reasons and defenses"

[DiEnd]

@Merryweather: I personally thought that your line of questioning was as unproductive and could only lead to answers indicative of role and not of alignment, which is merely a distraction at this stage of the game.  Also, some questions you asked were not valid in the first place (e.g Why are you encouraging people to not contribute?) and did not seem to me as useful pressure.

Fair enough. I had figured that the votes accumulated regardless of how the votes looked may have led into his mind with town or scum intent.  But he gave a scummy response anyway.

In other news, Alpha is being confusing for discounting Li and Duff Beer and voting Merryweather, when the reasons Li and Merry had at that point in time were pretty similar.  I'm also interested in why Alpha is accusing Merry of rolefishing when much of the playerbase has already voiced out that they wanted to know what the data form was used for, making it seem rather like selective scumhunting.  Combine this with him discarding the Duff Beer case on a whimsy (e.g someone saying that everyone looks townie is normally quite scummy), and I can't get a hold on his thought processes and cases.

Does him being confusing and not following your assumed townie logic make him scummy?

And to the mofo
HEY
above me. Link them then. And place them in this thing we call a case.

[Kaku Seiga]

So your response to that is ~WIFOM~, your vote on Li reads as OMGUS right now and you think it's totes cool to votepark on people and going mea culpa over doing scummy shit. There's nothing in your posts with Captain Li that indicate the slightest suspicion that he is scum, emphasised by your bucket list of Duffman, Mandarin Orange and Bardiche not containing Captain Li as a possible suspect. You're flinging shit around to see what'll stick more like. Rather than lay traps you could be scumhunting, which you aren't doing at all.

No, Town should not be constructing your case for you.

Good enough for D1 as far as I care.

Protip: Townies don't care because they assume everything they do is Townie. You already acknowledged your actions aren't necessarily Townie when you said you expected to be voted for it.

[DiEnd]

Why didn't you tell me this?!
Well I didn't know.

He was a townie?  Mother fuck almighty have I been under the wrong assumption.  I'll drop that point against him for now then let me gather my bearings.

[Kiva-la]

I give up. I thought some of you would've worked it out by now. I'll just highlight the most important parts.

scum is quite capable of imitating a wise ally if it will ward off votes.

And if he does try to imitate other people to get my vote off him, then that means he is scum going by your words. (bolded for even more emphasis)

The flaw with your position is that scum has no difficulty sounding logical and creating their own cases, especially with their fellow men backing them up from their camp.

If he can sound logical and can create his own cases then why isn't he doing so?

Notice anything yet?

[Ryuki]

Oh, looks like we're going places. What a great occasion for a song!

... Nah.

The initial replies to Alpha 60's noise questionaire were to be expected and are not scummy. Duff Beer's reply here is scummy, because he basically echoes exactly what Merryweather said while turning the Alpha 60 voting spree into a wagon. There was reason for pressuring Alpha 60, but not for turning it into something big, and Duff Beer does this without adding anything new to validate his vote.

I don't like Alpha 60. His questionaire was blatantly going to generate noise and extend RVS. This eventually led to what seemed to be good discussion, but then he finds it a good time to "reveal his reasons", essentially ending said discussion. This story of his may or may not be fake, but in this case, it doesn't matter, since his execution and reveal basically scrapped precious D1 hours. And I don't care if you wanted to be "flashy", this shouldn't come before townie behavior to begin with.

Mr. Krab's vote pattern is annoying. I accept his Duff Beer vote, but when Li accuses him of parking, he suddenly changes his mind, forgets any other suspicions he might have wrote about in his 30 or something posts (gosh!), and makes a bad vote on Bardiche. He's had better suspicions, and yet he votes for the guy with not enough posts telling him to post after he's gone for at least half a day. That's not the end of it too - in fact, do I really need to explain how terrible his transition to Li was? No, people have alerady done this. Stop giving us 'hints', give us your reasoning instead. Also, unless you change your avatar / JOB improves it, I'll be calling you Mr. Krubs. Nitpicky, but I don't care :c

What the hell was Gilgamesh doing?

People whose logic is sound: Merryweather, Duffman. I still need to gather my thoughts on most of the others. Back to reading everything all over again~.

[Kiva-la]

Mr. Krab's vote pattern is annoying. I accept his Duff Beer vote, but when Li accuses him of parking, he suddenly changes his mind, forgets any other suspicions he might have wrote about in his 30 or something posts (gosh!), and makes a bad vote on Bardiche. He's had better suspicions, and yet he votes for the guy with not enough posts telling him to post after he's gone for at least half a day. That's not the end of it too - in fact, do I really need to explain how terrible his transition to Li was? No, people have alerady done this. Stop giving us 'hints', give us your reasoning instead. Also, unless you change your avatar / JOB improves it, I'll be calling you Mr. Krubs. Nitpicky, but I don't care :c

I call it playing along. He wanted me to say who I would have voted for next, so I voted who I would have voted for next.

The keywords in my Li case are "Logic and Contradictions".

[DiEnd]

Still not seeing it. Connect the triangle for us.

Here I'll start you off:
Li is scummy because he did ----- this is scummy because ----

[Ryuki]

Your next-in-line was Bardiche? You've never mentioned Bardiche in any of your posts before the one you voted for him in, you've mentioned suspicions on other players, and even when putting these facts aside, your post doesn't do your Bardiche vote much justice. To me it looks like an easy vote pick, something that is done without much thought put into it. This strengthens my opinion that you weren't "playing along", but were legitimately scared of Li's votepark accusation.

[Kaku Seiga]

Barney, nice opinions. Care to add a vote to them? You haven't even jokevoted, now's a swell time to put one down.

[Kiva-la]

Li is scummy because he contradicted his own logic this is scummy because he is attacking me for bad logic, yet when I follow his logic, he makes counterpoints against them (not the fact that I was using his logic, but the actual logic itself).

In other words he is just a silly scum who is attacking himself.

Cut by Barney

Your next-in-line was Bardiche? You've never mentioned Bardiche in any of your posts before the one you voted for him in, you've mentioned suspicions on other players, and even when putting these facts aside, your post doesn't do your Bardiche vote much justice. To me it looks like an easy vote pick, something that is done without much thought put into it. This strengthens my opinion that you weren't "playing along", but were legitimately scared of Li's votepark accusation.

If I was scared of his votepark accusation I would have voted someone else the first time he mentioned it.
And of course I wouldn't put much thought into it, I was playing along after all, so I had to choose a target that is at least somewhat convincing and that I didn't have to put much thought into to give a reason for voting (I still don't exactly like Bardiche but I don't suspect him nearly as much as I suspect Li).

Cut again this time by Saki

[Ryuki]

I didn't want to vote before I was done having an identifiable read on the majority of players, which I currently am not. Pressuring me to vote at this stage will most likely produce an ill-thought vote.

Krubs cut: I personally don't see this as  "at least somewhat convincing". Although, pursuing this further likely won't result in a different answer.

[Kiva-la]

@Barney: What would have been at least somewhat convincing to you?

[Kaku Seiga]

Playing along is the worst reason I've ever heard for this type of situation.

OK, the way I read the interaction:
Li votes you for spinelessness/having a weak vote.
You retort that it's not weak because Duff Beer needs to give a SOLID contribution rather than just any contribution.
Li argues that scum can make solid contributions just as easily as Town, and that moving off if solid contributions are presented is weak because it's something scum can do as well.

What part of this has Li undermining his own logic?

@Barney: You've gone nearly 30 hours without placing any vote down. I hope for your sake that the vote you WILL put down is going to be articulated and pronounced. Cheerleading the Krubs case at this point is not doing you favours.

[Ryuki]

It's not the accusation, but the fact that it was your best scumpick minus Duff Beer (or Li?) that wasn't "at least somewhat convincing". Can you explain why you felt Bardiche was your presumed next-in-line at the time? Or, to put it better, can you explain your thought process for this:

I might just point out that this is prety much in order of who I think is scummiest.
Gut
Leaning scum.
Leaning scum even more.

[Kiva-la]

@Saki: That was basically a summary of the original posts minus the parts I pointed out. Try reading the ones I highlighted and maybe you can get somewhere with this.

@Barney: It was an on the spot reaction. I picked people who I could make a quick case against so I could keep playing along. Except Duffman who I have had a bad gut read on all game. It doesn't mean that I don't find Mandarin Orange and Bardiche scummy at all (because I still think they could be scum), it just means that they were an easy target.

[Kiva-la]

I'm tired and I'm going to sleep.
It's almost 4AM.
I'll be back on tomorrow.

[Kaku Seiga]

Except your quotations make no sense aside from seeming to misrep Captain Li.

[Serela]

>V-V-V-Votecount! About time for this again.

Bo Peep (0)
Mandarin Orange (2): Duffman, Bardiche
Captain Li Shang (2): Bo Peep, Mr.Krabs
Duff Beer (1): Kanji Watanabe
Kanji Watanabe (0)
Alpha 60 (1): Merryweather
Saki Morimi (0)
Merryweather (1): Alpha60
Mr.Krabs (2): Megaman.EXE, Captain Li Shang
Barney (0)
Duffman (1): Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh (1): Saki Morimi
Megaman.EXE (0):
Bardiche (0):

Not Voting: Barney, Duff Beer, Mandarin Orange

With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

32~ hours left in the day. Link to Countdown for D1 Deadline

[Punch Hopper]

Watanabe, I believe that Mr. Krabs' intentions to back off so easily were scummy because it showed that he had no true desire in getting the player he seemed to think was scum lynched. Not having alternative suspects on its own is not something I take issue with (given that I myself have no preferred lynches aside from the crab), but I think that it reflected poorly on Mr. Krabs given the circumstances. He claimed that he planned to drop his vote if Duff Beer posted something substantial, so at the time of my vote he had only a case he was willing to throw away easily and nothing else. The other people without alternatives were at least commited to their vote.

As is, I retain my displeasures with the crab. The first paragraph of his #76 looks like he wants to hold to his case, so his choice to retreat and switch to voting the battleaxe reads as appeasement to me. People were attacking his vote, so even though he wants to stand by it as shown with his post, he switches anyway so people will back off. His switch to me actually looks like a potential call to wagon; he could have voted me much earlier but did not until I had gained a vote from another player. I had not posted in between his two votes, so I can not think of any other explanation. The vote on me itself is worthless and is currently only leading town around by the neck, so I see no reason to organize my squadron to defend against it.

Bo Peep, if you want my opinions on Duff Beer, I am reading his #48 as a sign that he is a lazy soldier regardless of his allegiances and little else. Nothing he has said so far has given me a clear read on him one way or the other. I do not consider Bardiche's vote to be a votepark because it does not look like he intends to throw his suspicions away without a struggle.

I favor Saki so far. I could favor Barney, but his lack of a vote at this stage shows ineptitude even though his content is agreeable. Why post if you haven't finished looking over the thread? Charging an opponent before fully analyzing the situation is careless.

[DiEnd]

I am going to request that Gilgamesh, Bradiche and Megaman come in and weigh in their opinions and votes on the serious discussion that has occurred.  Not willing to accept the former two's bang up openings.

I need a response from Alpha especially after this line which I didn't pick up on earlier. 

It's because it's true.   Other than DuffBeer, everyone DOES look townie, even Merryweather.   Active participation and logically thought out posts look townie.

First why you voted a town read over your waffled DuffBeer and that since almost everyone has posted now, who is your scum picks since this no longer holds.

Back to reading everything all over again~.

Barney appearing to gab without a vote looks much worse now that he's disappeared and at the time of his first content post had read the entire thread yet didn't smack a vote down.  How much longer is your vote going to hide?

[Serela]

Megaman.EXE is being prodded.

[Decade]

Barney just doesn't want to vote Mr. Krabs because he wants to know he has some town support first.
The latest argument has me convinced Mr. Krabs if working with the Town.
My opinion of the Lovely Ms. Morimi is colored by this discussion, yet still subject to how she handles Mr. Gilgamesh. This is not necessarily a bad thing for her, but I like the feel of adding a little pressure.

Mr. Krab's vote pattern is annoying. I accept his Duff Beer vote, but when Li accuses him of parking, he suddenly changes his mind, forgets any other suspicions he might have wrote about in his 30 or something posts (gosh!),

Do you feel this is a point worth pushing Mr. Krabs, or Captain Li over more? And whichever you answer, for what reason do you believe so?

Oh dearie me, I do believe people have been posting while I was writing this.

As is, I retain my displeasures with the crab. The first paragraph of his #76 looks like he wants to hold to his case, so his choice to retreat and switch to voting the battleaxe reads as appeasement to me. People were attacking his vote, so even though he wants to stand by it as shown with his post, he switches anyway so people will back off. [...] I do not consider Bardiche's vote to be a votepark because it does not look like he intends to throw his suspicions away without a struggle.

But Mr. Krabs did struggle, Honey. He wrestled with himself over your logic for why Duffbeer was not scum, and simply didn't have the self-confidence nor the ignorance needed to win that struggle. It seems to me he changed his opinion more out of awe for your strength, than fear of where you pointed your weapon. I don't see why his willingness to admit he was wrong and backing down to look for alternate avenues is more scummy than something like the proposed intentions of Bardiche's "Never backing down." If one scum backed down every time he realized he was wrong, he'd never be able to vote for anyone.

[Kaku Seiga]

Forgetting to unvote like a boss, apparently.

##Unvote
##Vote: MrKrabs

I don't get Bo Peep here. What about Krabs makes you feel he's Town?

[Ryuki]

I'd read the thread before posting, obviously, but I was sure I'd get better reads from another run. Now, having read through the thread again, I can say that my opinion... hasn't changed.

I pursued a certain line of questioning earlier, which led to this:

@Barney: It was an on the spot reaction. I picked people who I could make a quick case against so I could keep playing along. Except Duffman who I have had a bad gut read on all game. It doesn't mean that I don't find Mandarin Orange and Bardiche scummy at all (because I still think they could be scum), it just means that they were an easy target.

Let's look at the facts. Krabs votes Duff Beer early, eventually backs up his vote and goes a certain period of time without changing said vote. He gets called out for vote parking by Li Shang, and as a defense, explains that he's waiting for him to defend himself. Li capitalizes on this, explaining how that defense is bad (which it is). Krabs replies in his #76 by.. saying that Duff Beer suddenly seems town, based on Li's logic (the same logic he bases his case on him around). He then completely discards his accusations and votes for Bardiche, which we have learned is an 'easy pick'.

Krabs explains this by claiming he was going for Li all along and that he changed votes to Bardiche only because he was "playing along". I didn't buy this earlier, and I don't buy this now. Let's look at the town perspective: Krabs has a little debate with Li before unvoting, and voting for an easy pick, both done with iffy reasoning. He then waits a few posts and claims that it was all a show, while "revealing" his case on Li which he has still yet to explain clearly. Nothing of worth has happened between these posts. Why would town!Krabs do this? I'm honestly not seeing any other option but his being wary of Li's accusation, which town!Krabs shouldn't have been wary of. Meanwhile, scum!Krabs makes a lot more sense -  being overdefensive resulting in an ill-thought change of votes, which is followed by an attempt to cover for the mistake. Am I the only one seeing this? I was pondering a lot about this but now I can't see it any other way.

##Vote Mr. Krabs

My former suspicions still stand, but it's safe to say that this is my main concern at the moment.

Cut by Saki.

[Skull]

Hmph...I guess I shall deign you all with my presence. Afterall, you're all naught but women and children.

@Saki Morimi: You're but a single women, and you dare challenge my Authority!?
Watch yourself carefully women...should you slip up, I'll be there to finish you!

@MerryWeather: You believe you can speak to me in such a way!?
Either way, I shall deign you with an answer.

As of the moment I find Duffman's lead by emotion to be a pretty damning point on him.

Mr. Krabs is quite the mongrel, requiring much prompting before willing to elaborate even slightly on his mysterious case. His willingness to even follow through what he stated is lacking. To state he wanted Li to post first, yet fell to pressure so easily shows he is a flight risk, a potential traitor.

As of the moment, I do not see the problem some people seem to have with Li.

##Unvote
##Vote MrKrabs

L-3

[Kaku Seiga]

So Gilly, what's your case on Duffman, and why is Mr Krabs worse than Duffman now? You better start deigning quickly.

[Kaku Seiga]

That is to say, his "lead by emotion" needs exemplification of why it's such a damning thing and what you mean precisely. I don't find Duffman to be a huge concern exactly. I like Li Shang as my company on this wagon, I don't like Gilgamesh and Barney, the latter especially for cheerleading and bandwagon hopping when it's a "safe" wagon, and the former because his bandwagon hop is awful. You're voting Krabs because he crumbled and submitted to a completely reasonable request? Are you serious?

[Sasword]

Krabs is looking pretty Kruppy with his #52 and #54 rolefishing, then his weird case on Li which seems like a stretch.  The interesting point though, is the way he formed the case, he called on town to notice something he did; how easy would it to be to get a scumbuddy to comment on "Li's logic and contadictions".

This makes sense if Duff Beer Krabs was town, and now that I think about it, because of what you said, he is more likely town. Because based on that sentence, he either has really bad scumbuddies, or is town. If he can sound logical and can create his own cases then why isn't he doing so? If he's a bad scum player who can't creat good cases then that could mean his buddies aren't helping him at all, or they aren't online while he is. I find this first one unlikely due to stupidity, and I find the second one unlikely due to the fact I can't see it happening at all. So the real flaw is your counterpoint to me, because if scum can make well fleshed out cases filled with good logic, then why hasn't he done so? I would still like Duff Beer Krabs to make a better case anyway.

This was in response to Li.  Ironicly enough, I didn't buy this reasoning for Beer, but I think it applies to Krab himself.
Ultimately, I think this conjecture about what scum could/would do won't get us anywhere.

Echoing Saki's call for more reasoning on Duffman by Gilgamesh.  Truly though, I would like Duffman to not just be using beer gut.
Bo Peep and Kanji don't rub me wrong.  Have to reread Barney, Saki, and Li.  Going to work like clockwork.  ETA 4-6 hours.