Author Topic: Cavalier of the Abyss Mafia [Game Over, Town Wins] (Read 111003 times)

W · « **Reply #780 on:** July 18, 2011, 10:52:16 AM »

Forgot to answer this.

Quote from: Xix on July 18, 2011, 10:33:16 AM

This question?

Yeah, you cut me with it.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #781 on:** July 18, 2011, 10:54:12 AM »

Not just harder. I wouldn't have been able to do it. The odds of them being scum would have gone from 3/10 to 2/9, and I'd have to build new cases so as to go after the most likely scum, while still disliking the player I blocked.

Kabuto · « **Reply #782 on:** July 18, 2011, 10:56:28 AM »

So you are saying that it is a bad thing to look at different people? And how does it become impossible? And how can you say with certainty that there are three scum, especially when there was a vote moving third party around.

Kabuto · « **Reply #783 on:** July 18, 2011, 10:57:52 AM »

I fail to see how the odds of the person you roleblock being scum changes. Also, you claim to have roleblocked Depore. You seemed to have no problems in trying to push a case on her.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #784 on:** July 18, 2011, 10:59:40 AM »

Mostly a guess, by the number of players. I doubt there would be 4 scum and a third party. And I've never even played a game with only 2 scum on this site.

It's not a bad thing to look at other people. I don't want to drop a case though simply because a player that I want lynched is a little less likely to be scum for reasons that I won't be able to back up without admitting to blocking them. But I would not be able to push the case when I know that they did not perform the night kill.

Kabuto · « **Reply #785 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:02:12 AM »

Your logic confounds me so much.
Bonus Question: You have stated that you found Depore to be scummy throughout Day 2. You claim to have roleblocked Depore on Night 1. A nightkilled occurred during Night 1. How were you able to continue stating your suspicions of Depore, despite knowing that she did not perform the night kill?

Kiva-la · « **Reply #786 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:02:46 AM »

I have no problems pushing a case on her now that I know Iffrita targetted UK. Anyway, probability.

With 11 players, there are 10 players that could be scum (since I'm town). 3 of them are scum. Thus, 3/10.

If I know player X did not perform the night kill, then X is not scum A. He can only be scum B or C. Thus, scum A is one of the other 10. Thus, the odds of X being scum is reduced to 2/9, which means I should go after the other targets that still have about a 3/10 chance of being scum instead.

Kabuto · « **Reply #787 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:04:35 AM »

What.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #788 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:05:10 AM »

Quote from: Prophet Mala on July 18, 2011, 11:02:12 AM

Your logic confounds me so much.
Bonus Question: You have stated that you found Depore to be scummy throughout Day 2. You claim to have roleblocked Depore on Night 1. A nightkilled occurred during Night 1. How were you able to continue stating your suspicions of Depore, despite knowing that she did not perform the night kill?

Less likely doesn't mean not scum. Note that towards the beginning of the day I asked her to make cases, and told her how to make them. That was because I wanted her to stop playing so suspiciously, since I knew she didn't do the night kill and I wanted to try to clear her. I only started seriously considering her again after when I realized scum A was probably Iffrita, which means now everyone including her has the 2/9 chance of being scum.

Kabuto · « **Reply #789 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:07:53 AM »

#788 "Less likely doesn't mean not scum." Exactly my point. Why would you not roleblock who you thought was scum? I would still like for you to answer Question 6.

Kabuto · « **Reply #790 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:09:34 AM »

In addition, your hypothetical scenario relies on the scum you pick being the scum that performs the nightkill. Even if you did manage to pick out a scum, it would only be a 1/3 chance that they were the actual scum performing the nightkill. (1/3 assuming your assumption of 3 scum is correct.)

Kabuto · « **Reply #791 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:10:32 AM »

So I will state it again. Why would any townie not want to block the role of and a potential nightkill from somebody that they thought was scum?

Kiva-la · « **Reply #792 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:13:06 AM »

Quote from: Prophet Mala on July 18, 2011, 10:51:40 AM

Question 6: You had the potential to stop a power role being used in scum's favor and/or a nightkill, yet you decided not to roleblock who you thought was scum as, if a nightkill had still occurred, it would have been supposedly harder for you to push a lynch on the roleblocked scum. Yes or no?

It would be no more difficult for me to push a case on roleblocked scum than on non-roleblocked scum. However, the odds of a roleblocked scum being scum are significantly lower, to the point where I am not willing to push the lynch of a player that was roleblocked on a day when a nightkill happened in spite of the roleblock.

Kabuto · « **Reply #793 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:15:55 AM »

And you are ruling out all other possible roles that could potentially stop a nightkill? For example, the traditional doctor. And you are admitting it yourself, your motivation for not roleblocking somebody that you thought was scum was because you wanted to keep pushing a case on them.

Kabuto · « **Reply #794 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:18:09 AM »

Because if you think that they are scum, you should keep pushing a case on them anyway.
2/9 is not much lower than 3/10. And Mafia is not a game that is completely random.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #795 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:20:25 AM »

In other words, I would not be able to pursue the case. I would rather roleblock someone I find suspicious so as to prove that they did not do the night kill and reduce my suspicion (and hopefully catch a scum), than to target my main suspect, and find out that he did not perform the night kill, which would force me to change my read of him from scummy to suspicious. Especially since there are more than one scum, and I could be giving an actual scum a free pass simply because he didn't perform the nightkill himself.

I am not ruling out all possible roles that could stop a night kill, so much as I was not concerning myself with them when I was making my selections.

And 2/9 is significantly lower than 3/10. It's less than 75% of 3/10

Kabuto · « **Reply #796 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:25:02 AM »

Okay. I finally figured out a way to word what was bugging me so much. Look if you roleblocked somebody else and the nightkill occurred WHAT IS GIVING THEM A CLEAR? WHAT STOPS THEM FROM BEING ONE OF THE SCUM THAT DID NOT PERFORM THE NIGHTKILL? IN FACT, IF YOU WANT TO GO BY PURE PROBABILITY, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT YOU'LL BLOCK SCUM THAT DID NOT PERFORM THE NIGHTKILL THAN REGULAR SCUM.

Kabuto · « **Reply #797 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:25:42 AM »

#796 "IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT YOU'LL BLOCK SCUM THAT DID NOT PERFORM THE NIGHTKILL THAN REGULAR SCUM." It should read "than scum that performed the nightkill."

Kabuto · « **Reply #798 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:26:39 AM »

Caladbolg, you're still around right? What do you think of this mess because I don't get it at all.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #799 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:41:41 AM »

Your logic is correct. I am more likely to block the scum that did not perform the night kill than the scum that performed the night kill. However, any player that I block on a night with a kill is also significantly less likely to be scum.

Kabuto · « **Reply #800 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:43:56 AM »

Here's the important part though. By not blocking who you think is most likely to be scum you are making it more likely for yourself to block a townie. And if you block a townie that means that you are stopping an ability from being used for pro-town reasons.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #801 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:45:59 AM »

Quote from: Prophet Mala on July 18, 2011, 11:43:56 AM

Here's the important part though. By not blocking who you think is most likely to be scum you are making it more likely for yourself to block a townie. And if you block a townie that means that you are stopping an ability from being used for pro-town reasons.

True, but I am also verifying that they did not perform the night kill, which is evidence in their favor.

That is the reason I targeted a player I was suspicious of, rather than the player I found scummiest.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #802 on:** July 18, 2011, 11:49:27 AM »

Though to be fair, if I had more role information at the time I probably would have targetted someone that didn't look light they had any night ability at all.

Kiva-la · « **Reply #803 on:** July 18, 2011, 12:05:24 PM »

Just a warning; I will not be able to answer many questions after 50 minutes from now. If you have any last minute things you want to ask, it would be a good idea to do so now.

DiEnd · « **Reply #804 on:** July 18, 2011, 12:17:39 PM »

Quote from: Sage Orwen on July 18, 2011, 11:02:46 AM

I have no problems pushing a case on her now that I know Iffrita targetted UK. Anyway, probability.

With 11 players, there are 10 players that could be scum (since I'm town). 3 of them are scum. Thus, 3/10.

If I know player X did not perform the night kill, then X is not scum A. He can only be scum B or C. Thus, scum A is one of the other 10. Thus, the odds of X being scum is reduced to 2/9, which means I should go after the other targets that still have about a 3/10 chance of being scum instead.

...Probability...you know what happened last time I talked about probability? Someone telling me to kinda throw it out the window. You can't rely on probability in Mafia games.
Also from what I seen to be seeing from your post, your saying your Roleblock of Depore, gave her townie-creds?
Do I see something wrong with this?
You say she was given townie creds, yet you only display it to town when it suits you. Shouldn't these kind of information be asap?

Kiva-la · « **Reply #805 on:** July 18, 2011, 12:24:07 PM »

Quote from: One on July 18, 2011, 12:17:39 PM

...Probability...you know what happened last time I talked about probability? Someone telling me to kinda throw it out the window. You can't rely on probability in Mafia games.
Also from what I seen to be seeing from your post, your saying your Roleblock of Depore, gave her townie-creds?
Do I see something wrong with this?
You say she was given townie creds, yet you only display it to town when it suits you. Shouldn't these kind of information be asap?

Not a chance unless one of us is about to be lynched.

Revealing that information earlier in the day would have revealed that my role can block kills. There was no way I was revealing that my role could block kills unless I needed to. Heck, even hinting a role based reason for not wanting a Depore lynch would have been a bad idea.

DiEnd · « **Reply #806 on:** July 18, 2011, 12:35:48 PM »

Screw this, drunk people don't lie, UK has been right so far,
Lets throw logic out the window shall we,
Time to be the One who takes fire to be the One who sets Sage Orwen on L-1
##Vote Sage Orwen
Regrets should have no place in this world.

OOO · « **Reply #807 on:** July 18, 2011, 12:49:48 PM »

##Vote: Sage Orwen

I could have sworn I thought I said Iffritas was town day one, but then again, I might not have said that because I didn't want to just make a post listing all of the people who are town. Speaking of which, I'm taking Mikhail off of the list I made for UK.

I'm going to be inciting a lot of anger tomorrow, I know, but you'll all have 24 hours to cool down, right? Besides, i still think Orwen has a good chance of being scum.

Kiro · « **Reply #808 on:** July 18, 2011, 02:59:04 PM »

Day 2 has ended.

Sage Orwen the Reknown Sage has been lynched.

Demon Navarus has disappeared.
Mikhail has returned.

It is now Night 2. You have 24 hours to send actions to the 3 mods.

Bardiche · « **Reply #809 on:** July 18, 2011, 04:56:40 PM »

Sigh. Since it wasn't obvious, I'll state it here now.

A hammer ends the Day. A mod does not need to tell you that you need to shut up after a hammer, you may assume you must shut up after a hammer because the Day phase has ended. I have therefore edited the main post to include this note:

A HAMMER ENDS THE DAY PHASE. That means shut up once someone's been voted to Lynch.

For clarification: Yes, this means that there are no circumstances under which someone could possibly require L+2 to be lynched. That's just silly.